Pathways to Net Zero Carbon by 2030
The science is clear – without urgent action, the world is on track for catastrophic temperature increases. We must rapidly reduce emissions to limit the worst effects of the climate emergency.
Net zero carbon by 2030
The Mayor of London has set a target for London to be net zero carbon by 2030. To support this ambition, he commissioned experts Element Energy to analyse the possible pathways to achieving net zero.
Fairness must be central in the net zero pathway. The cost of no action will impact lower income Londoners the most, with overheating, toxic air and flooding all posing a risk. We must ensure we're supporting those on low incomes from the costs. And ensure they benefit from warm, energy efficient homes, cleaner air and the new green jobs that will come from taking faster action.
Element Energy analysed four possible pathways to net zero, looking at the different ways London can reduce emissions. The report shows that, under all pathways, it is possible to speed up action and radically reduce carbon emissions with the right ambition, leadership, powers and funding.
As well as helping avoid catastrophic climate change, there are many other benefits in achieving net zero, including:
- supporting tens of thousands of jobs
- improving health through better air quality and more active lifestyles
- reducing inequalities
- improving quality of life for all.
Analysis of a Net Zero 2030 target for Greater London
The Accelerated Green pathway
The Mayor selected a preferred pathway to net zero – the Accelerated Green pathway.
Achieving this will require many things, including:
- nearly 40 per cent reduction in the total heat demand of our buildings. This requires over 2 million homes and a quarter of a million non-domestic buildings to become properly insulated
- 2.2 million heat pumps in use in London by 2030
- 460,000 buildings connected to district heating networks by 2030
- a 27 per cent reduction in car vehicle kilometres travelled by 2030
- fossil fuel car and van sales ended by 2030, and enforced in line with Government’s existing commitments.
The Mayor’s response to the Element Report explains the key issues, benefits and challenges of the four possible pathways. And why the Accelerated Green pathway is the preferred option for London. This pathway balances ambition with deliverability, and replaces the previous trajectory in the 1.5°C Plan.
London Net Zero 2030: An Updated Pathway
Monitoring greenhouse gas emissions
The Greater London Authority monitors how much greenhouse gas London produces every year. It shares this information in a report called the London energy and greenhouse gas emissions inventory (LEGGI). The latest report, published in November 2024, shows data for 2022.
In 2022, London’s greenhouse gas emissions were 28.40 million tonnes (MtCO2e). This was a small increase from 28.37 million tonnes in 2021. Before the pandemic, emissions were higher, at 31.94 million tonnes in 2019. The slight increase in 2022 reflects a “post-pandemic rebound effect” as the city recovered from COVID-19. Since 1990, emissions have fallen by 37 per cent, and they are also 44 per cent lower than their peak in 2000.
London’s population has grown by 30 per cent since 1990, and the city’s economy has grown too. Despite this, average emissions per person have dropped by 52 per cent. In 1990, each Londoner produced 6.7 tonnes of greenhouse gases (tCO2e). By 2021, this had fallen to 3.2 tonnes per person. Compared to the rest of the UK, London has the lowest per capita emissions of any region.
LEGGI reports on five sectors:
- emissions from buildings
- transport
- industrial processes and product use (IPPU)
- waste and agriculture
- forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
with around 90 per cent of emissions coming from buildings and transport.
Most sectors have seen a significant reduction in emissions over the last few decades. This is largely due to the nation-wide decarbonisation of electricity but emissions but interventions such as London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone and the Mayor’s Energy Efficiency Fund have helped to further reduce emissions in London.
The latest data can be found on the London DataStore. To compare London’s progress with other C40 Cities, the C40 Knowledge Hub provides data via an interactive dashboard here C40 Knowledge Hub interactive dashboard.
Other work on net zero carbon pathways
The scenarios to reach net zero carbon have been modelled at the Greater London and London borough level. The Zero Carbon Pathways Tool shows the energy, transport and other emissions under each scenario.
We also commissioned a study on London’s wider greenhouse gas impacts – read the report about London’s consumption based emissions.
While outside the scope of the Mayor’s net zero target, he's doing everything in his power to influence a reduction in consumption based emissions. For example, the London Plan includes a pioneering policy that targets the whole life-cycle emissions of new development and the Mayor has committed to working with the food sector to reduce consumption-based emissions and food loss and waste from the supply chain.
Previous net zero pathway
The previous net zero pathway is outlined in the 2018 1.5C Compatible Plan.
The 2018 1.5°C Compatible Plan was informed by the following reports:
- Building Energy Efficiency – Arup built a model to help us understand how energy efficiency can be achieved.
- Zero Carbon Energy Systems – Element Energy modelled four scenarios to zero carbon energy by 2050, based on electrification, decarbonisation of gas, decentralisation of energy or a patchwork solution.
- Adaptation – Mott McDonald reviewed London’s existing activity on climate adaptation and identified where there is need for more to avoid the impacts of increasingly hot, dry summers and unpredictable weather.
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