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Monitoring London's economy
GLA Economics provides the latest economic data for London and interprets how this may affect policy. This includes analysis of recent developments in London’s economy and forecasts for the next couple of years.
How we monitor London’s economy
We frequently release publications on the state of London’s economy. We have two regular publications (London’s Economy Today and London’s Economic Outlook) as well as our individual publications.
All our publications include analysis of the latest economic developments and data, and our interpretations of how this may affect London and policy for the capital.
Our latest publications that fall under this topic are outlined below.
All our publications can be accessed on our Economics publications page.
London’s Economy Today (LET)
LET is published at the end of every month. Each issue features the most up-to-date information and analysis on the state of London’s economy. It features a wide range of London and UK economic indicators, including information on employment, house prices and consumer confidence.
Many of these data indicators are available for download on the London Datastore.
London’s Economic Outlook (LEO)
LEO is published twice a year, in the spring and autumn. Each issue provides an overview of recent economic developments in London, the UK and world economies. It outlines our latest forecasts for London’s economy and employment, and possible risks that may affect these forecasts.
GLA Economics’ 44th London forecast suggests that:
- London’s real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate is forecast to be 1.1% in 2024 as relatively high interest rates and the ongoing fallout from the cost of living crisis drags on the economy. Growth is expected to improve to 1.9% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026.
- London is forecast to see a 1.0% rise in the number of workforce jobs in 2024, rising slightly in 2025 and 2026 to 1.3% and 1.5% respectively.
- Household spending is forecast to be modest this year with growth of 0.6%, followed by stronger growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
- Household income grows moderately in 2024 (up 1.9%). Then rises by 2.8% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.
The data that sits behind the forecast is available to download from the Datastore.
The economic impacts under future funding scenarios for TfL
GLA Economics and Transport for London (TfL) have analysed the implications of a forced move to a ‘managed decline’ scenario if the Government does not provide the emergency and long-term funding required to maintain the capital’s transport services.
COVID-19 and London's economy - impacts and economic outlook
This paper summarises the latest evidence and analysis on the impacts of COVID-19 on London’s economy so far and on the economic outlook so that key actors and stakeholders engaged in responding to the pandemic can have a readily available evidence base to inform policy responses.
The new GLA Economics forecast models for London's economy
Working paper 98 presents the new GLA Economics forecast models and evaluates their performance with respect to the previous methodology, a comparable independent forecaster, and outturn data.
Transport expenditure in London 2020
Current Issues Note 60 looks at the case for continuing transport expenditure in London, and specifically in relation to transport investment. It considers the demand for transport services, the rationale for investment, and the levels of investment, who funds it and who pays.
The economic impact of Brexit on London
This report summarises the evidence on the economic impacts of Brexit on the London and UK economies. It looks both at the impacts that have been already observed since the EU Referendum (e.g. impacts on investment and GDP) and at potential future impacts, both in the short and longer term.
The London input-output tables
This Working Paper (97) is the first set of published input-output tables for London, and is an important step towards economic accounts for the city.
Regional, sub-regional & local GVA estimates for London 1997-2016
Current Issues Note 57 shows that: In 2016, London’s total nominal GVA (as measured by GVA (I)) was under £396 billion (up 4.4 per cent on 2015). This represented 22.7 per cent of the UK’s total GVA (I) in 2016, up from 22.5 per cent in 2015 and 18.5 per cent when going even further back to 1997.
An analysis of London's exports
Working Paper 91 shows that in 2015 London exported £131.1 billion of goods and services. This was up from £126.4 billion in 2011. More than three-quarters (77 per cent) of this was exports of services.
Demand and supply for accessible hotel rooms in London
Given the need to understand better the potential room requirements for disabled visitors, Working Paper 90 presents projections of the demand and supply of accessible hotel rooms in London up to 2041.
GVA in London's local authorities
Current Issues Note 55 looks at GVA in London's local authorities in a London and UK context, 1997-2015.
Transport expenditure in London
Current Issues Note 54 sets out the rationale for investing in transport infrastructure and presents data on the current and planned levels of transport expenditure, with an emphasis on London.
Regional, sub-regional & local GVA estimates for London 1997-2015
Current Issues Note 52 presents the findings for London from the main GVA release (using the income approach) and then outlines the results from the experimental real GVA data.
GVA per workforce job estimates for London
Working Paper 87 provides estimates of GVA per workforce job for London, the regions and the UK, by industry section and division, through to 2015.
A description of London's economy
The purpose of Working Paper 85 is to describe the structure and make-up of London’s economy in different parts of the capital.
London and Europe - Facts and figures
On 23 June 2016 the UK voted to leave the EU. Since then there has been a high demand for data on various aspects of London’s relationship with both the rest of the UK and Europe in light of the upcoming Article 50 negotiations.
Current Issues Note 51 sets out to summarise some of the extensive selection of data and surveys that cover this topic, helping to enlighten debate and decision making.
Modelling real quarterly GVA data for London
- As of yet no official measure of quarterly growth in London’s economy on either a nominal or real measure exists. At the annual level nominal GVA data is available (with a lag), but real GVA data remains experimental in nature and is not classified as a national statistic.
- GLA Economics has therefore undertaken analysis to calculate this data at the London level.
- Current issues note 50 sets out the methodology that has been used for this analysis and first estimates of quarterly real GVA for London.
The historic performance of the GLA's economic forecast
Current Issues Note 49 looks at the accuracy of previous GLA Economics’ forecasts for the growth of total Gross Value Added, total employment, household expenditure and household income.
Revisions to the “historic data” had a significant impact on the performance of GLA Economics’ forecasts but nevertheless performed comparably with other forecasts produced of the London economy.
The note outlines some areas for improvement in the forecasting process in light of the evolving nature and understanding of London’s economy.
Fiscal devolution for London
GLA Economics has produced five working papers (80-84) examining options for greater fiscal devolution to inform the London Finance Commission's work.
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