A changing climate

1.31 Some climate change is inevitable. Although it is impossible to predict how these changes will impact on London specifically, it is likely that the direction and speed of change are such that the effects of this will be increasingly felt over the period of this London Plan. By 2050, what we in this country think of as being a heat wave of the kind experienced in the summer of 2003 may well be the norm. The Government’s latest UK Climate Change Projections suggest that by the 2050s, London could see an increase in mean summer temperature of 2.7 degrees, an increase in mean winter rainfall of 15 per cent and a decrease in mean summer rainfall of 18 per cent over a 1961–1990 baseline (see Chapter 5).

1.32 London has to be ready to deal with a warmer climate, and one likely to be significantly wetter in the winter and drier during the summer. We also have to play our part in making sure the extent and impacts of future climate change are limited. Action taken now and over the period covered by the new Plan will help reduce what has to be done for the years after that.

1.33 Adapting to the climate we can anticipate over the next two decades will include making sure London is prepared for heat waves and their impacts, and addressing the consequence of the ‘urban heat island’ effect – the way dense urban areas tend to get warmer than less built-up areas, and to cool more slowly. Heat impacts will have major implications for the quality of life in London, particularly for those with the fewest resources and living in accommodation least adapted to cope.

1.34 There will also be an increased probability of flooding and a need to cope with the greater consequences when it does happen. Sea levels will be higher; there will be more frequent and higher tidal surges; significant increases in peak Thames and other river flows; and the potential for more surface water flooding. It is likely that a significant proportion of London’s critical and emergency infrastructure will be at increased risk from flooding, especially as London accommodates the kind of growth expected to 2036. There are likely to be more people living and working on the floodplain – 15 per cent of London lies on the floodplain of the Thames and its tributaries, and there are 1.5 million people and 480,000 properties there already. Flooding is also likely to impact worst on deprived communities many of which live in the areas that may be affected and are less likely to be insured.

1.35 A further problem arising from climate change will be an increasing shortage of water. South east England is already ‘water stressed’ – during particularly dry weather, London’s water consumption outstrips available supply – and per capita water usage is increasing. There are limited additional water resources available in this corner of the UK, and over time options like new reservoirs may have to be considered. We will also have to ensure that there is adequate and appropriate water infrastructure to ensure a resilient, efficient and economic supply of water to homes and businesses.

1.36 Between now and 2036, decisions will have to be made at global, national and regional levels that will have profound consequences for the future of the planet. These issues are increasingly likely to dominate the policy agenda, and to mean changes in the way London relates to the rest of the world, how it works – and how we live our lives. They are likely to drive a shift to a low carbon economy, making resource efficiency a priority and encouraging innovation and new enterprises.

1.37 Encouraging energy efficiency is important for reasons going beyond climate change. A growing city with more households and jobs will need reliable and sustainable supplies of electricity and gas to power its homes, offices and other workplaces, transport network and leisure facilities. Energy issues, including resilience, security of supply and infrastructure provision – particularly for electricity – will clearly be increasingly important in the years to 2036.