More households

1.15 Just as with population, there is uncertainty in projecting household growth. Some of this uncertainty devolves from that associated with the population trends but another element is related to it only indirectly. The central issue is that, contrary to historic assumptions, comparison of household size estimates from 2001 and 2011 suggests that London’s households increased in size – average household size rising from 2.37 to 2.47. In the 2011 Plan it was assumed that the average household would then contain 2.34 people and household size would decline into the future. However, the Census that year showed the average London household contained 2.47 people, apparently as a reflection of an upward trend. When applied to substantial population growth such a difference has a significant effect on the projected scale of household growth.

1.15A Consideration also has to be given to the relationship between changing levels of population growth and household size. In paragraph 1.10A above, it was noted that to provide a sound plan for the future development of London, account had to be taken of the possibility that the significant, but apparently recent upturn in population growth could in part at least be cyclically rather than structurally based and short to medium term in nature. The same may be true of the upward trend in household size and that, for the longer term, as population growth abates, there may be a reversion to the smaller households associated with historic trends. This in turn might generate relatively more household growth per 1000 population that that associated with larger household.

1.15B From the current number of London households (3.28 million in 2011), the period is likely to see growth to:

• 3.74 million households by 2021
• 3.93 million by 2026
• 4.10 million by 2031; and
• 4.26 million by 2036.

1.15C The composition of London households is also likely to change, partly because of social trends. The period to 2036 is likely to see a decrease in the number of married couples, more than offset by increase in cohabiting couples though they are projected to decrease as a proportion of total households from 42% to 39% between 2011 and 2036. There is also likely to be an increase in one person households, particularly among older people, and in lone parent and other multi-adult but non-family based households. The extent to which these trends may be offset by population growth among communities with a higher proportion of larger families will be closely monitored. Taken as a whole, these trends mean we will have to plan for more homes, particularly meeting the accommodation needs of families and single person households including older people, both of which are likely to increase in number.