Scenarios, planning and economic outlooks

This paper looks at the role of scenario planning in the London Plan. Past experience suggests that more formal scenario work – of the kind undertaken in the past – will not add sufficient value to be worthwhile. However this past work, and the experience of undertaking it, was drawn on for the current draft replacement Plan – in the Integrated Impact Assessment, for example.

The paper summarises a workshop on this topic held by GLA Economics in July 2009, with external speakers.

It includes an independent review (by Paul Ormerod) of the economic assumptions which underlie the current draft replacement London Plan and some of the alternative strategies discussed at the workshop and since. Section three includes a “ready reckoner” of the relationship in the Plan between employment, output and productivity.

The paper concludes that a more satisfactory way of coping with the effect of uncertainty on the London Plan is to keep it under constant review. Indeed that is what the 1999 Greater London Authority Act requires the Mayor to do – the approach taken is based on the planning approach widely known as ”plan –monitor-manage”.