London's Economy Today - Issue 225 - May 2021

The overview

• UK GDP falls at the start of the year but is now growing again.
• London’s labour market remains weak.
• Signs of an economic rebound for the capital.

Economic indicators

• The PMI new business index in London rose in April to 61.5 from 54.2 in March. These two months, and February, are the first time there has been positive sentiment since September. The index is at its highest level for six years. An index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders on average across firms from the previous month.
• In April, expectations for house prices for the next three months remained positive according to surveyors. The net balance of house prices expectations was 27 in April in London, down slightly from the figure for March. The net balance index measures the proportion of property surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a decline.
• Consumer confidence in London improved while remaining negative in May with the consumer confidence index in London rising to -4, from -12 in April. It is now at a level comparable with that prior to the pandemic in January 2020. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

London's Economy Today supplement: Covid-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (May update)

• The 'macroeconomic scenarios for London's economy post COVID-19' publication includes three paths for London’s output and jobs until 2030. It complements the more in depth forecast for London’s economy in London’s Economic Outlook, which provides the central scenario.
• In all scenarios London’s economy is expected to recover, and in the central scenario it reaches pre-crisis levels in Q1 2022.
• Employment recovery is projected to be significantly slower than output recovery, so that pre-crisis employment levels are not reached until Q2 2023 in the central scenario.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.