London's Economy Today - Issue 215 - July 2020

The overview

• Indicators for London’s economy improve but still show the challenges faced by business.
• Jobs data in London starting to show the impact of the pandemic.
• OBR publishes new COVID-19 scenarios for the UK.

Economic indicators

• The PMI New Business Index in London went up in June to 44.9 from 29.7 in May. This is the second consecutive increase after April, when this index showed its lowest point in the recorded series (14.9). An index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders from the previous month.
• Between April and June, surveyors reported expectations of a further contraction in London house prices (-36). However, this represents a substantial increase compared to -65 in the three months to May.
• The consumer confidence index in London was at -13 in July, very similar to its value in June (-14) and still representing one of the lowest levels in seven years. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

London's Economy Today supplement: Covid-19: Short-term housing market monitoring as of 28/7/2020

• Sales listings continue to exceed the level recorded in the week before lockdown, with a 94% increase in new listings added to Rightmove, however the rate of this growth has slowed in recent weeks. Rightmove report that asking prices have remained steady in London since March, and were 3.9% higher in July 2020 than in July 2019.
• The stock of advertised rental listings on Rightmove is 88% higher than before lockdown. This higher supply has contributed to a 0.6% fall in asking London rents in the year to Q2 2020.
• While the majority of pre-lockdown works have resumed on residential sites in London with 20 or more private homes, sharp falls in the FTSE 350 sector indices for Real Estate and Real Estate Investment Trusts suggest there is still some nervousness from investors and operators in the real estate market.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.