London's Economy Today - Issue 213 - May 2020

The overview

• Return to work starts amid economic gloom.
• Small and medium-sized enterprises are feeling it worst.
• After the contraction there are signs of recovery elsewhere in Europe.

Economic indicators

• Passenger journeys in London reached a historic low because of the lockdown restrictions with only 19.6 million passenger journeys registered in April, 163.9 million less than in March when the lockdown in London began and 251.8 million less than the February period which had no lockdown restrictions. The April figures show the largest drop since data were registered. 5.0 million of all journeys were Underground journeys and 14.6 million were bus journeys.
• London business activity plunges to a historic low in April with the Business activity index at London private firms falling dramatically from 56.0 in February to 31.5 in March and to 13.4 in April. This the lowest level and the largest fall of the historic series. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey shows the monthly business trends at private sector firms. Index readings above 50.0 suggest a month-on-month increase in activity on average across firms, while readings below indicate a decrease.
• The consumer confidence index in London was at -24 in May after having registered its sharpest fall ever in April (-22) from 2 in March. The level in May represents the lowest level in more than seven years. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

London's Economy Today supplement: The people of London and COVID-19

• Within the capital, Croydon and Brent are the boroughs with the highest number of confirmed cases, with over 1,400 in each borough. Brent and Harrow are the boroughs with the highest proportion of lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19, with over 400 for every 100,000 residents.
• As of 20th May, London, with a population around 9 million, has recorded 142% excess deaths, compared with 108% (11,000) excess deaths for Ile de France, with a population of 12.2 million, incorporating Paris.
• Analysis published on 7 May by the Office for National Statistics shows that the mortality rates for Black, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other ethnic groups are several times higher than for the White ethnic group. These differences in mortality still exist once differences were controlled for by a large range of factors including the different age, sex, region, rural-urban structures of the population, and also socio-economic factors such as area-based deprivation, household composition, highest qualification and socio-economic class.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.