London's Economy Today - Issue 209 - January 2020

The overview

• Brexit to occur tomorrow night.
• Global growth forecasts remain low.
• London’s economic data remains mixed.

Economic indicators

• Business activity growth at London private firms was positive but weak at 51.6 in December 2019, slightly down from 51.8 in November. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey shows the monthly business trends at private sector firms. Index readings above 50.0 suggest a month-on-month increase in activity on average across firms, while readings below indicate a decrease.
• In the three months to December 2019, surveyors reported the largest number expecting an increase in London house prices (31) since August 2015.
• The consumer confidence index in London was 9 in December 2019, up from -6 in November. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

London's Economy Today supplement: Transport expenditure in London

• London spills over its administrative boundaries, and there are 2 million more people in it every day than its 8.8 million residents. The city relies on public transport, and so public investment – 58% of all journeys on public transport in Britain are at least in part in London. People make far more use of public transport than elsewhere in the country, and increasingly so.
• Public transport expenditure is needed because congestion in the capital is worse than other UK cities. While benefits flow to Londoners through additional homes, jobs, and business activity they also flow to the rest of the country through the higher tax revenue raised.
• London increasingly contributes directly to its transport projects. For example, 55% of the cost of Crossrail will be met by London funding sources. Current funding mechanisms, though, are insufficient to meet London’s needs.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.