London's Economy Today - Issue 208 - December 2019

The overview

• Pound and shares rise on the election result before falling back
• Protectionism becomes more entrenched, a year before the end of Brexit transition
• Consumer confidence becomes negative in London

Economic indicators

• A total of 282.7 million passenger journeys were registered between 13 October and 7 November, 9.5 million less than the previous period. This result is largely seasonal and happens every year in this period. Bus journeys decreased by 10.5 million while Underground journeys increased by one million. 113.3 million of the total journeys were Underground journeys and 169.4 million were bus journeys.
• The PMI New Business Index was 51.2 in London in November, up from 50.1 in October. An index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders from the previous month.
• More property surveyors report a fall in London house prices. In the three months to November 2019, the net balance of property surveyors reporting house price increases fell from -23 in October to -33 in November. The index has now been negative since the three-month period to February 2016.

London's Economy Today supplement: GLA Economics forecasts slow growth for London in the coming year in our latest London forecast

• London’s economy is expected to have grown by 1.8% in 2019 in real terms (i.e. after accounting for inflation). This rate of real GVA growth is then expected to slow in 2020 to 1.1%, before picking up to 1.8% in 2021.
• The number of jobs is expected to have increased 1.5% in 2019. We then expect the rate of employment growth to slow markedly to 0.1% in 2020 before rebounding back to 0.7% in 2021.
• Household income and spending are expected to also grow at a modest rate over the three-year forecast period after accounting for inflation. That said, the rates of growth are expected to be below historical averages.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.