London's Economy Today - Issue 203 - July 2019

The overview

• OBR warns that ‘no deal’ Brexit could lead to a £30 billion decline in public finances.
• UK productivity drops again.
• London continues to see a mixed economic picture.

Economic indicators

• The PMI New Business Index was 50.5 in London in June, down from 51.2 in May. An index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders from the previous month for most firms surveyed.
• Most surveyors continued to have negative expectations for the next three months for house prices in London. The RICS index was -22 in June, higher than in May (-28). London remains the region with the most negative expectations for house prices.
• Consumer confidence in London remains positive with the consumer confidence index in London decreasing from 16 in May to 12 in June but in historic terms this represents the highest level in more than three years. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

London's Economy Today supplement: Understanding the impact of welfare reform on Londoners

• New analysis shows that Londoners who are low-income, disabled or a single parent have been negatively affected by changes to the national tax and welfare system since 2010.
• This is reflected in findings from The Survey of Londoners, a major new social survey, which finds that similar groups of Londoners are struggling with issues such as food security, insecure work and debt.
• The findings of these analytical projects are being used to inform advocacy and policy development at the GLA.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.