London's Economy Today - Issue 202 - June 2019

The overview

• Economic growth stalls in April 2019.
• Trade and other tensions hitting global growth.
• London’s economy continues growing and will likely do so in the coming years as well.

Economic indicators

• Business activity in London grew in May with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey showing the monthly business activity at private sector firms in May at 51.9 after four months being below 50. Index readings above 50.0 suggest a month-on-month increase in that variable, while readings below indicate a decrease.
• Most surveyors have continued negative expectations for the next three months for house prices in London. The RICS index was -28 in May, very similar to April (-30). London remains the region with the most negative expectations for house prices.
• The consumer confidence index in London was 16 in May, the highest level since March 2016. This index was only 1 in London in both April and March. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

London's Economy Today supplement: Impacts on the London and UK economies of Brexit

• Studies suggest that output in mid-2018 was around 2 to 2½ per cent lower than it would have been in the absence of the EU Referendum.
• Uncertainty around the Brexit process continues to affect the London and UK economies, although London’s economy is performing better.
• All forms of EU exit will reduce long-term GDP. This would be alleviated by a deal with the EU. London would be relatively better off if a deal protected service exports.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.