London's Economy Today - Issue 200 - April 2019

The overview

• Brexit uncertainty continues to affect the economy
• UK productivity growth remains concerning
• London businesses face a challenging start to 2019

Economic indicators

• New business in London is likely to have declined in March continuing the pattern seen so far this year. The PMI New Business Index was 47.6 in London in March, slightly up from February (47.1). An index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders from the previous month, while a reading below 50.0 indicates a decline in new orders on average across firms.
• In March, most surveyors had negative expectations for the next three months for house prices in London. The RICS index was -31 for this month, up from -50 in February. Expectations have now been negative since August 2016. London remains the region with the most negative expectations for house prices.
• Consumer confidence in London was marginally positive with the index at 1 in March compared to 0 in February. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions on average; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

London’s Economy Today supplement: The London input-output tables

This is the first set of published input-output tables for London, and is an important step towards economic accounts for the city:

• The London economy mirrors the UK in terms of the contribution of components of income, expenditure and production to output.
• Unlike the UK a small number of sectors account for much of London’s output. These are mainly export-oriented sectors, and with other sectors which enable the movement of people and goods support a trade surplus with the EU, and the rest of the world.
• Exports from London are a quarter higher to the rest of the UK than the rest of the world, and London is in trade balance with the rest of the UK.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.