London's Economy Today - Issue 192 - August 2018

The overview

• Bank of England raises interest rates for the second time in a year
• International economic growth continues
• A continued mixed picture in economic indicators for London but most show growth

Economic indicators

• London business activity slows with Business activity growth at London private firms at 53.1 in July, down from 56.2 in June. Index readings above 50.0 suggest a month-on-month increase in that variable, while readings below indicate a decrease.
• Growth in new business remains solid in London with the PMI New Business Index at 54.2 in July, down slightly from the eight months high of 55.0 in June. An index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders from the previous month.
• Most surveyors continued to have negative expectations for the next three months for house prices in London. The RICS index was -32 in July, down from -20 in June. London remains the region with the most negative expectations for house prices.

London’s Economy Today supplement: Trends in pubs in London

• The number of pubs fell from 4,835 in 2001 to 3,530 in 2017, a fall of 27%, and an average loss of 82 per year. 2017 saw that trend continue, with 85 fewer pubs than in 2016.
• This reduction is driven by a fall in the number of ‘small’ pubs (defined as having fewer than 10 staff). The number of small pubs fell by 50% between 2001 and 2017 (from 3,390 to 1,680), whereas the number of ‘large’ pubs (10 or more staff) actually increased over this period (by 28%, from 1,445 to 1,850).
• Explanations for the decline in pubs include changing drinking habits and changing leisure preferences more broadly. Since 2001 there has been a large increase in the number of restaurants and cafes in London, more than offsetting the fall in the number of pubs.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.