London's Economy Today - Issue 191 - July 2018

The overview

• IMF warns trade tensions could cost the global economy $430bn by 2020
• UK economy boosted by service sector
• A continued mixed picture on London’s economy

Economic indicators

• TfL passenger journeys increased in May with a total of 285.7 million passenger journeys registered between 30 April and 27 May 2018, 15.7 million more than the previous period accounting for odd days.
• Growth in new business remains solid in London with the PMI New Business Index at 55.0 in June, up from May (52.8). An index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders from the previous month.
• Consumer confidence in London remained negative in June with the GfK index of consumer confidence at -4 in June, down from -1 in May. This index has remained negative since February. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

London’s Economy Today supplement: London’s productivity puzzle - drivers and outlook

• In economic output terms, London is the most productive place in the country. However, productivity growth has remained far weaker in the aftermath of the 2007/08 financial crisis compared to before the crisis.
• This means that the level of GVA per job in London is now about 24% below where it would have been had its pre-crisis (1998-2007) trend continued, compared to just 15% lower for the UK as a whole.
• A mix of factors have been weighing on productivity: this is likely to include a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in the Finance and insurance sector, and a tendency for firms to opt for labour recruitment over capital investment in recent years.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.