The economic impact of Brexit on London

This report summarises the evidence on the economic impacts of Brexit on the London and UK economies. It looks both at the impacts that have been already observed since the EU Referendum (e.g. impacts on investment and GDP) and at potential future impacts, both in the short and longer term:

• The loss to the UK economy from the anticipation of Brexit has been estimated at close to 3%, and the losses to the UK of a no deal Brexit have been estimated at between 3 and 10% of GDP
• Productivity growth is likely to be lower than if there had not been an EU Referendum, and is likely to feed through to lower wage growth (after inflation)
• The sterling-euro exchange rate fell by 11% in June 2016 after the EU Referendum, and a further 4% in July 2019. This has made everyone worse off. The effects of tariffs from a no deal Brexit might increase prices by 5.0%.